TeeJaw Blog

There’s Something Happening In Here…What It Is Ain’t Exactly Clear…

Posted in Government and Politics by TeeJaw on Monday, October 25, 2010, 1: 22 PM

Those opening lyrics from the Buffalo Springfield tune For What It’s Worth (1967) came to mind with the new PPP poll showing the Colorado governor’s race possibly taking a turn for Tom Tancredo. John Hickenlooper is down to only a 3-point lead over Tancredo as Maes sinks into oblivion.

Hickenlooper 47 — Tancredo 44 — Maes 5

 

PPP stands for Public Policy Polling. Here is what they said when announcing this new poll:

Tom Tancredo continues to surge as Dan Maes’ support completely collapses in the Colorado Governor’s race and John Hickenlooper now leads the race by only a 47-44 margin with Maes getting 5%.

Hickenlooper’s been unable to rise above the 47-48% mark in PPP’s polls over the last three months. When Tancredo and Maes were splitting the vote relatively evenly it looked like that would be enough to win but now Hickenlooper really appears to be at risk of losing

PPP has Tancredo ahead of Hickenlooper with Independents and even has 10% of Democrats committed. His ability to win will depend, according to PPP, on getting those 9% of Republicans who still support Maes to change their minds. Who in the world are those Republicans? They must be the ones who believe Elvis is still alive and riding around in the SouthWest on a Harley. Or maybe it’s Dick Wadhams and the Republican old guard in Colorado, who have led the Colorado Republican party into minority party status.

Says PPP:

Hickenlooper’s getting 87% of Democrats to 10% for Tancredo and none for Maes. Tancredo has the 73-14 advantage with Republicans with 9% still going to Maes. His path to victory is dependent on that 9% continuing to decline. Tancredo also now has a 46-44 advantage with independents.

Hickenlooper remains the slight favorite but this race looks more and more like it could produce one of the most shocking outcomes in the country on election night.

Now, here is why it ain’t exactly clear what is happening in here. PPP is a liberal polling firm operating out of North Caroline for liberals. Here is what is clear…nobody at PPP wants Hickenlooper to lose this election. So what’s up with this poll? Is it legit?

There are two possible answers.

The most hopeful is that this is a legit poll that the libs running PPP don’t like but they are reporting it honestly because the election is close and they have their credibility to protect. It’s one thing to announce a phony poll several weeks before an election while there is still time to correct before the election and nobody will remember it. But to intentionally put out a phony baloney poll just before it is about to be refuted risks losing future business.

On the other hand, this could be a over-optimistic poll for Tancredo intended to shore up Democrat turnout. If they believe their numbers show Hickenlooper is oh-so-close but that it depends on turnout, they could be rolling the dice to see if this poll can get those Democrats who might stay home if they think Hickenlooper already has it in the bag.

The second answer is most likely the correct one because PPP wins either way. If Tancredo wins they look like they rightly spotted a last minute surge. If Hickenlooper wins their strategy worked, Democrat insider fat cats will know what went down and their future business with Democrats will be assured. Either way both parties will continue to take them seriously, and dumbbell Republicans might even hire them in the future.

Bad lines being drawn,
Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong.
It’s time we stop, hey what’s that sound?
Everybody look what’s going down.

The Buffalo Springfield band was named after the steam roller company of the same name.

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